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Gulf restoration draft plan lacks required priority list, spending allocation plan
By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune (New Orleans). May 23, 2013.
"The federal-state body that will oversee the spending of billions of dollars in Clean Water Act fines resulting from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill on Thursday released a “draft initial comprehensive plan” for spending the money on projects that will restore the coast’s natural resources and also benefit the Gulf Coast’s economy…" (Read more)

Extremely active hurricane season possible, acting NOAA administrator says
By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune. May 23, 2013.
"The 2013 hurricane season, which begins June 1, could be extremely active, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issued a pre-season Atlantic hurricane forecast Thursday that calls for 13 to 20 named storms, including 7 to 11 hurricanes. Of those, 3 to 6 could be major hurricanes, Category 3 and above, with winds above 111 mph…" (Read more)

Army Corps of Engineers command change on eve of hurricane season
By Paul Murphy, WWL-TV. May 23, 2013.
"NEW ORLEANS — There was pomp and circumstance on the Mississippi River during a military change of command ceremony on the Army Corps of Engineers sprawling Uptown complex…" (Read more)

Louisiana red snapper anglers get longer season in federal waters
By Todd Masson, The Times-Picayune. May 24, 2013.
"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday it would lengthen the federal red-snapper season in the Gulf of Mexico to as many as 34 days…" (Read more)

The following petition has been posted on the White House’s ‘We the People’ site: Less than 1% of printed works globally are accessible to the blind. This is because laws around the world bar printed material from being turned into formats useable by the blind and visually impaired, or for such material to be shared [...]

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Serious electoral flaws and human rights abuses by the Iranian government undermine any meaningful prospect of free and fair elections on June 14, 2013. Dozens of political activists and journalists detained during the violent government crackdown that followed the disputed 2009 presidential election remain in prison, two former presidential candidates are under house arrest, and authorities are already clamping down on access to the internet, having arbitrarily disqualified most registered presidential and local election candidates.

(Beirut) – Serious electoral flaws and human rights abuses by the Iranian government undermine any meaningful prospect of free and fair elections on June 14, 2013.

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Consumers International (CI) has commissioned the production of three papers, the first on the competition chapter by one of our members, and the other two by independent experts, respectively covering the investment chapter and how it affects A2K, and the free flow of information provision and its impacts on privacy.  The papers are now available [...]

A young woman from Eritrea reflects on her country’s day of independence. Today – 24 May – is Eritrean Independence Day, marking a victory won at the cost of many lives and sacrifices. But now, 20 years on, many of … Continue reading →

This is a summary of an event held at Chatham House on 20 May 2013. Hon Claver Gatete, Minister of Finance and Economic Planning of Rwanda, discussed the foundations of the country's economic transformation and how Rwanda can harness current opportunities to sustain growth and development. Event details. 

This is a summary of an event at Chatham House on 15 May 2013. Abel Chivukuvuku, President, Convergência Ampla de Salvação de Angol, discussed opposition politics in Angola. He discussed the role new parties play in Angola's evolving democracy, and how new parties can operate in the political space. Event details.

This is a summary of an event held at Chatham House on 14 May 2013. HE Fawzia Yusuf Haji Adam, Somalia's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, discussed the government's plans to revive and revise the country's regional and international relationships, and outlined Somalia's key foreign policy objectives for its future engagement with the international community. Event details.

ECFR reports: Julien Barnes-Dacey on Syria's conflict 

ECFR reports: Yan Xuetong & Mark Leonard on China's rise

ECFR español: Sergio Cebrián sobre comuniación europea

ECFR agenda: the Italian 'Sleeping Beauty'

ECFR Deutsch: Thomas König erklärt die Nord Korea Krise

ECFR italiano: Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi sull' Iran

 

This is a transcript of a speech made by Eugene Jarecki, film-maker, at Chatham House on 21 May 2013. The speaker shared clips from his film The House I Live In in order to draw lessons from America's drug war, which he believes has failed, and argue for a shift away from criminalization to a model that instead prioritizes public health over punishment. Event details and Q&A

A rare moment of opportunity has emerged to renew diplomatic efforts to resolve the Syria conflict. The priority now must be de-escalating the level of violence  and the reducing the threat of regional spill-over 

 

A default is defined as an option that applies if the chooser does nothing. The good news is that setting greener choices as defaults can automatically nudge people into more sustainable behavior.

Dena Leibman is Head of Outreach at IFPRI

At turns seeming like an inspiring TED talk, policy seminar, industry trade show, research conference, and youth-centric social media event, the Chicago Council’s Food Security Symposium succeeded in its goal to showcase the power of these actors to work individually and together to end poverty and hunger around the world.

This post by Howarth Bouis, Director of HarvestPlus, which is coordinated by IFPRI and CIAT, is part of a series produced by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs marking the occasion of its annual Global Food Security Symposium in Washington, D.C., which was held on May 21st. For more information on the symposium, click here. Follow @globalagdev and #globalag on Twitter to join the conversation.

By Kelsey Davenport, Daryl G. Kimball, and Greg Thielmann

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) May 2013 quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear program indicates that Tehran is continuing to move forward on its nuclear program, installing more advanced centrifuges and building-up its stockpiles of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent and 20 percent, and moving forward on construction of its heavy water reactor at Arak.

The report findings underscore the urgent need to intensify negotiations with Tehran to resolve the political questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and to resolve the outstanding questions regarding the potential military dimensions of the program, but, at the same time, the findings reinforce earlier assessments that Iran remains years away from obtaining a deliverable nuclear arsenal.

Key Highlights:

• Iran’s stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium, now at 182 kilograms, remains below the estimated 240-250 kilograms which, when further enriched to weapons grade, would be enough for one nuclear weapon.

• While Iran has now installed 689 advanced (IR-2M) centrifuges at Natanz, these centrifuges are not yet producing enriched uranium.

• The number of centrifuges enriching uranium to 20 percent at Fordow remains constant at 696.

• No progress has been made in negotiations between Iran and the IAEA on the scope and sequence of the agency’s investigation into Iran’s nuclear activities with possible military dimensions.

20 Percent Stockpile Still Short of a Bomb’s Worth

According to the May 2013 report, Iran has produced 324 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent at its Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities. Only 182 kilograms remain in the stockpile as uranium hexafluoride gas, an increase of 15 kilograms since the IAEA’s February 2013 report on Iran.

In total, Iran has produced 324 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium. The other 142 kilograms of 20% percent material has been converted to uranium oxide to make fuel plates for the Tehran Research Reactor, which produces medical isotopes. This leaves Iran below the 240-250 kilograms which, when further enriched to weapons grade, (over 90 percent enriched U-235) is enough for one bomb.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a September 2013 speech at the UN General Assembly that accumulating that level of 20 percent enriched materials is a “red-line” that would precipitate an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In the prior report, from February 2013, the IAEA noted that Iran had produced 280 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent, of which 113 kilograms had been slated for conversion into uranium oxide powder.

Uranium oxide can be converted back into uranium hexafluoride form, but it is unclear how much of the material would be lost in the process. Although the exact amount of wastage is not known, experts assess that it could be as much as 60 percent. Iran has the capabilities to reconvert the power to gas form and given the current amount of uranium oxide in the February 2013 report; reconversion could take as little as between 1-2 weeks. However, it would be difficult for Iran to complete the conversion without the IAEA inspectors noticing.

Additionally, Iran is unlikely to break out of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) with only one bomb’s worth of uranium enriched to 20 percent. At the current rate of production, it would be several years before Iran has enough 20 percent material for several bombs if it chose to do so. Also, a sufficient quantity of weapons-grade uranium is only component of a nuclear weapon. Iran would still need to build a device and mate the warhead to a delivery vehicle before it would have a working nuclear arsenal. Iran has not demonstrated the capability to do either and it would likely take Iran more time to master these steps.

More Advanced Centrifuges at Natanz

According to the May 2013 report, Iran is continuing to install advanced centrifuges, the IR-2M, at its Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plan. Iran now has 689 IR-2Ms installed, 509 more than was reported in February, but they are not yet producing enriched uranium.

Iran’s Natanz nuclear plant (image source: BBC).

Iran informed the IAEA in January 2013 that it would begin installing the IR-2Ms in February. Iran has said that when running, the IR-2Ms will produce reactor grade uranium, which is enriched to 3.5 percent. Fereydoun Abbasi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in Tehran on Feb. 13 that Iran is “carrying out the installation” of the new centrifuges and would be “starting them up gradually.” As of the February 2013 report, Iran had installed 180 IR-2 centrifuge casings.

The IR-2M is a second-generation model based on Iran’s original gas centrifuge, the IR-1.While these centrifuges are likely to be more efficient than the IR-1s that Iran using for producing enriched uranium to both 3.5 percent and 20 percent levels, it is unclear how much more efficient they will be because it is unlikely that Iran has been able to produce or procure the highest-grade of materials for the IR-2Ms. Experts assess that a tripling or quadrupling in efficiency might be realistic, but that it is difficult to estimate until the machines are operating in cascades.

In the remaining halls at the Fuel Enrichment Plant, Iran has 13,555 IR-1 centrifuges producing uranium enriched to 3.5 percent. Iran installed 886 of IR-1s since the last report. In total, Iran has a stockpile of 6,357 kilograms of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent. While Iran has produced more materials enriched to 3.5 percent, some of it has been further enriched to 20 percent. As of the February 2013 report, that number was 5,974 kilograms.

The February report also noted that, for the first time, Iran had installed two new types of centrifuges, the IR-6 and the IR-6S, in the research and development area at Natanz’s Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and was feeding natural uranium into the single machines, and in the case of the IR-6S, cascades. The new IAEA report says that Iran installed the IR-5 at the Natanz research and development area for the first time.

Fordow Remains Unchanged

According to the May 2013 IAEA report, the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at Fordow remains at 696, as it has since the facility began operations in 2011. The 696 centrifuges are enriching uranium to 20 percent in four cascades.

Fordow is designed to hold 2,976 centrifuges in 16 cascades, of which 2,710 have been installed. As of the February 2013 IAEA report, an additional 11 cascades had been vacuum tested and are ready to begin enriching uranium. Only 1 cascade remains incomplete.

Arak

The May 2013 reports says that Iran is also continuing to make progress on its heavy water reactor at Arak, despite UN Security Council resolutions calling on Tehran to halt construction. The Arak reactor has been a project of concern for many years due to the fact that it could provide a second route by which Iran might produce fissile material for nuclear weapons.

Iran’s Arak reactor located southwest of Tehran (Hamid Foroutan/ISNA/Associated Press)

The IAEA reports that on March 10, 2013, Iran informed the Agency that it planned to produce 55 fuel assemblies for the Arak reactor by August 2013. Iran says it plans to complete the reactor in 2014 and use it to produce medical isotopes.

In May, 2013 Iran provided “some information regarding the reactor vessel recently received at the IR-40 Reactor site. Nothwithstanding, as reiterated by the Agency in a letter to Iran dated 8 May 2013, an updated DIQ for the IR-40 Reactor is urgently required.”

The prior report, from February 2013 noted that on November 26, 2012, the Agency verified a prototype IR-40 natural uranium fuel assembly for Arak before its transfer to the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) for “irradiation testing.” This would be the first time TRR has been used to test fuel for the Arak reactor.

Spent fuel produced by heavy water reactors can be more easily reprocessed to extract plutonium, which can be used to produce nuclear weapons. Independent experts assess that if Arak functions at optimal capacity, it could produce sufficient plutonium to yield 9 kg annually, after separation, enough for approximately 1.5 nuclear weapons.

However, Iran does not have a reprocessing facility for separation, having revised its declaration to the IAEA regarding Arak in 2004. The revision eliminated plans for a reprocessing facility at the site. Tehran maintains that it does not intend to build a plant to separate plutonium from the irradiated fuel that the reactor will produce.

No Progress on IAEA Investigation into PMDs

Iran also continues to refuse to cooperate fully with the IAEA’s investigations into activities with possible military dimensions (PMDs). According to the May 2013 report, the IAEA and Iran have made no progress on negotiating an approach to the agency’s investigations on these activities.

The IAEA’s November 2011 report laid out in detail the information collected by the agency regarding Iran’s alleged past nuclear weapons activities. The May 2013 report does not present any new evidence or information regarding these potential military activities.

Since early 2012, the IAEA and Iran have been discussing a way forward—through a “structured approach”—for the agency to investigate these alleged activities, but have been unable to reach an agreement. The parties met most recently for the 10th time in Istanbul on May 15. After the meeting Deputy Director General Herman Naekarts reported that the IAEA and Iran were unable to finalize the structured approach. No new date to continue negotiations was announced.

While the IAEA has stated it is committed to dialogue it is unclear how long they will keep negotiating with Iran over the structured approach. In a December 2012 speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said that talks should not continue “without producing any concrete result.”

In May 15 testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman said that the talks between Iran and the IAEA should not continue indefinitely without a result and that at some point Amano will have to tell the Security Council that it must take further action.

Sherman said she was not sure if this would happen at the Board of Governors meeting in June or September. Sherman is the top U.S. representative to the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, an the United States) negotiations with Iran.

Time to Accelerate Progress of P5+1 and Iran Negotiations

Iran has not yet made the decision to pursue nuclear weapons, and if it were to do so, it remains years away from a deliverable arsenal.

Obtaining the necessary amount of fissile material enriched to weapons-grade is only one step. Iran also would have to design a warhead, fashion the uranium hexafluoride gas into the metallic form needed for the warhead, and conduct an explosive test of that design to assure its reliability. To do so, Iran would likely expel IAEA inspectors, which would alert the international community to its true intentions.

Former Secretary of Defense Panetta estimated in 2012 that it would take about a year to produce a bomb and then 1-2 additional years to fit it to a delivery vehicle, similar to the estimate from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

However, the time available to conclude an interim confidence-building arrangement that halts Iran’s production of 20% uranium and secures more extensive IAEA monitoring, in exchange for the supply of medical isotopes and limited sanctions relief should not be wasted.

The resumption of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 in 2013 was a positive step, but both sides need to show more flexibility and pragmatism to achieve a breakthrough. Further rounds of talks should be scheduled soon after Iran’s June election to resolve the long-running standoff.

The revised package that the P5+1 brought to the “Almaty II” negotiations on April 5-6 represents a step in the right direction. It proposed a halt to production of uranium enriched to 20 percent, which remains the primary concern of the United States and the P5+1, as well as offering limited but significant sanctions relief to Iran. The parties should think creatively about how this proposal could be modified and sequenced to build confidence and prevent escalation.

The new CAFE standards may require complementary policies to meet the ambitious goals of reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In a new RFF discussion paper, RFF Senior Fellow Virginia D. McConnell examines the new footprint standards, their implications for changes to the size mix of vehicles, and the role of credit policies on compliance and cost-effectiveness of the rule.

Tax exemptions, industry rebates, and border tax adjustments can help protect the competitiveness of industries affected by a carbon tax, but they are not equally efficient at achieving economic and environmental goals. In the latest issue of Resources, RFF scholars Carolyn Fischer, Richard Morgenstern, and Nathan Richardson examine the issues.

When is ingenuity likely to help solve ecological problems? Is humanity?s ability to innovate its way around environmental problems relevant to how we think about conservation? RFF Senior Fellow and Center for the Management of Ecological Wealth Co-Director Jim Boyd tackles these questions and contemplates the limits to ingenuity in a piece for the latest issue of Resources.

Carbon pricing remains the strongest option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change. But such a policy still faces serious political hurdles in part because of the perception that a carbon tax would most negatively impact the poor. Clayton Munnings and Daniel Morris address the potential of a carbon tax to actually be progressive in a new RFF issue brief.

A clean energy standard, a policy that imposes a minimum level of electricity generation that comes from clean energy, has been proposed in various forms since 2010. In an interview for Resources magazine, Center Fellow Anthony Paul and Resident Scholar Nathan Richardson discuss the details and viability of such a policy.